Bitcoin (BTC) worth tumbled practically 8% within the final 24 hours because the U.S. greenback index continues to maneuver above 110, making the crypto and equities markets weak forward of the Fed‘s FOMC assembly on September 20-21. Fashionable crypto analyst Rekt Capital predicts BTC worth might fall beneath $13,900, and to $11,500 in an excessive situation.
Historic Information Signifies Bitcoin (BTC) Value Can Fall Additional
Within the month-to-month timeframe, the Bitcoin worth is presently struggling to surpass the $20,000 degree, exhibiting a weak spot. The $20,000-$23,350 vary will largely resolve bears and bulls right here. The value actions in July and August point out the distinction within the buy-side strain, with $20,000 as assist.
Nevertheless, price movement in September has been so weak and suggests $20,000 is now turning right into a resistance degree. If the month ends with Bitcoin (BTC) worth beneath the $20,000 degree, the following assist ranges are $17,165 and $13,900.
Traditionally, the Bitcoin (BTC) worth varieties a backside at or beneath the 200-weekly shifting common (WMA) after a Demise Cross. The post-Demise Cross retracements have been within the vary of -42% to -73%.
Due to this fact, contemplating the historic post-Demise Cross retracements and assist ranges, the Bitcoin worth to backside at round $13,900. Within the excessive situation, the BTC worth to backside at $11,500.
Because the BTC worth is already beneath the 200-WMA and psychological degree of $20,000, the draw back appears most probably. Nevertheless, there’s a huge distinction in market cap dimension, liquidity, and institutional and retail adoption of Bitcoin now as in comparison with earlier occasions.
Bitcoin bottomed 547 days earlier than the Bitcoin Halving in 2015 and 517 days earlier than the Bitcoin Halving in 2018. Due to this fact, if Bitcoin goes to backside 517-547 days earlier than the upcoming April 2024 Halving, then the underside will happen in This fall this 12 months.
Macros Impacting BTC Value
Regardless of a growing number of new daily addresses, the Bitcoin worth continues to dive beneath $20,000.
The Bitcoin (BTC) worth will largely rely on the Fed fee hike on September 21. Wall Avenue consultants corresponding to Goldman Sachs predict a 75 bps rate hike in September and 50 bps fee hikes in November and December. Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the chance of a 75 bps fee hike is 80%.
At present, the BTC worth is buying and selling above the $19,000 degree after recovering practically 4% from the 24-hour backside at $18,390. If the U.S. greenback index stays close to 110, the BTC worth might be beneath strain.
The offered content material could embody the non-public opinion of the creator and is topic to market situation. Do your market analysis earlier than investing in cryptocurrencies. The creator or the publication doesn’t maintain any accountability to your private monetary loss.